Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?

The "No IPO" position trades at 34¢ with an extreme 119% risk-adjusted implied yield, suggesting the market prices a significant probability of OpenAI going public within the 624-day window despite the modest price. The 16¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume indicate severe illiquidity, making the yield potentially misleading—the $2.16M open interest masks thin actual trading depth. The extraordinary 1055% realized volatility and 9.21 vol ratio signal this market experiences dramatic swings, likely driven by sparse news events (3.9 info arrivals per hour) rather than continuous price discovery, making the current 34¢ quote potentially unstable.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

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