Iran nuclear test before 2027?

The 8¢ price reflects a low but non-negligible 8% probability of Iranian nuclear testing within 258 days, with an extremely asymmetric risk-reward profile where YES holders face 1,627% annualized yield against just 12.3% for NO holders. The market has declined sharply from 10¢ seven days ago, suggesting recent geopolitical developments have reduced near-term test expectations, though the 2¢ spread and $33k open interest indicate reasonable liquidity for a tail-risk event. The elevated cliff risk index of 12 and neutral regime score suggest binary resolution dynamics typical of low-probability geopolitical events, where small information shocks could trigger outsized price moves despite the current calm.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

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