Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $50 on the final trading day of June 2026?

The market is pricing in a 92% probability that crude oil settles above $50 by June 2026, reflecting extremely low tail risk for a sub-$50 outcome despite the contract's 74-day horizon. The dramatic 5,671% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe illiquidity and minimal conviction in downside scenarios, with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 7-cent spread indicating thin order book depth. A 2-point price decline over seven days combined with the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 12 suggests some recent uncertainty, though the neutral regime score and substantial $1.18M open interest indicate this remains a relatively stable market where the consensus view of oil staying above $50 is heavily entrenched.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

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