Will the Democratic Party win the NC-06 House seat?

This market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $24k open interest, suggesting the 14¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus and could be vulnerable to sharp moves. The 1117% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and likely reflects the illiquidity premium rather than realistic Democratic odds in this Republican-leaning district, while the 6 Cliff Risk Index indicates elevated volatility potential as we approach the November 2026 election. With over 200 days to expiration and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a speculative position rather than an actively traded market, making the current price unreliable for serious forecasting.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade