What is the current probability for "Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 5¢ (5% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on June 30, 2026. 69 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 10022.8% and 27.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026.

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5¢

Bid/Ask 5/5¢·Spread 0¢·Vol $2,545.928·OI $31,221.006·Closes Jun 30, 2026·69d remaining

0x85177fe9a496ab6369104add4ec3f2896c72e139b324310cfa59fab523303b0f

7-day price94 snapshots · 75 regime

50¢5¢ current

Apr 163¢Apr 20

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 10022.8%

IY (No) 27.8%

Adj IY 4009%

CRI 19

LAS 0.20

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	10022.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	27.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	4009%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
LAS	0.20	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/21/2026, 7:30:43 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 7:23:17 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x85177fe9a496ab6369104add4ec3f2896c72e139b324310cfa59fab523303b0f yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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