Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 37% probability that Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?. This contract trades at 37¢ on Polymarket, closing November 3, 2026.

███████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
37¢
Bid/Ask 37/37¢·Spread 0¢·Vol $25,711.581·OI $65,827.988·Closes Nov 3, 2026·195d remaining
0x8d62f20324e9e7f1a3c663ab6aac9a2f6e7adb96c6a69ac2cea7e08a71a7f2ef
7-day price355 snapshots · 129 regime
70¢37¢ current
Apr 823¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 318.8%
IY (No) 109.9%
Adj IY 155%
CRI 2
EE -5.000
Overround -0.0%
▶ Full indicator table (7)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)318.8%
IY (No)109.9%
Adj IY155%
CRI2
EE-5.000
Overround-0.0%
LAS0.03

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.335
Spread
0¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 12:51:12 AM
SF edge -3.0¢ noObservability lowEvent type political

Edges (1)

NO +-3¢thesis — California 2026 Governor: Mahan Underpriced at 15¢. The mailman's son from Watso
Has thesisHas orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 12:38:18 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x8d62f20324e9e7f1a3c663ab6aac9a2f6e7adb96c6a69ac2cea7e08a71a7f2ef yes 100

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions