Will Claude go down 12+ times in April?

The 84¢ price reflects extremely high confidence in 12+ outage days for Claude in April, yet the asymmetric implied yields (505% for Yes vs. 13,931% for No) signal severe mispricing—the No side offers dramatically outsized compensation for what the market deems a 16% probability event. With only 14 days to resolution and $3.79M open interest against modest $1.46M daily volume, this thin liquidity combined with a 219% realized volatility and elevated Cliff Risk Index (5) suggests the market may be overweighting tail scenarios or reacting to recent outage events, making the No position potentially attractive for contrarian traders despite its low probability weighting.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of April during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).

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