Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?

This market is pricing in an extremely low 7% probability of military action against Iran by late April 2026, yet displays extraordinary yield metrics (35,362% on the Yes side) driven by the combination of minimal price and imminent 14-day expiry. The 852% realized volatility and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 13 suggest sharp intraday swings typical of binary events approaching resolution, though the flat 7-day price action and neutral regime score indicate no recent catalysts have shifted market sentiment materially. With only $12.8K in 24-hour volume against $34K open interest, liquidity is relatively thin for a geopolitical event of this magnitude, creating potential slippage for larger positions.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

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Regime

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