Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Prediction markets currently give a 56% probability that Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?. This contract trades at 56¢ on Polymarket, closing June 27, 2026. The Netherlands is priced at 55¢ with a notably asymmetric risk profile—the "No" side offers 628.2% implied yield versus 420.5% for "Yes," suggesting market participants view the downside as more attractive despite the favorite status.
Analysis
The Netherlands is priced at 55¢ with a notably asymmetric risk profile—the "No" side offers 628.2% implied yield versus 420.5% for "Yes," suggesting market participants view the downside as more attractive despite the favorite status. With $19.9M open interest but only $153.9K in 24-hour volume, liquidity is thin relative to position size, creating potential slippage risk for larger trades. The market has drifted down 2¢ over seven days and closes just after the group stage concludes (6/27/2026), leaving minimal post-resolution arbitrage window.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Trade
sf trade 0x9ad73ff7534b1051e2dad167a0b1617ae20f64f20770ae8bf89a59a7a7290669 yes 100