Will Alex Pereira be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Alex Pereira be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,161.25 in open interest, making the 10¢ price potentially unreliable for valuation purposes.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,161.25 in open interest, making the 10¢ price potentially unreliable for valuation purposes. The 1,273.6% implied yield on the "Yes" side reflects the severe bid-ask spread (13¢) rather than genuine probability assessment, and the 5,121% realized volatility suggests erratic price discovery in a thin market. With 258 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 9, this contract faces significant uncertainty around title changes and interim championship complications, making it a speculative position rather than a liquid betting opportunity.
Also on kalshi at —¢
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Light Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
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Trade
sf trade 0x9f314704922e731188b1c4841bb597a28b8965fb029ebe733132aec0d8b1ecec yes 100