Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 5¢ (5% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 253 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3460.2% and 6.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3460.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	6.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	3460%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1613%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.96	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

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