Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 28% probability that Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 28¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $251.8k open interest and a wide 18¢ spread, suggesting the quoted 24¢ price may not reflect true market consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $251.8k open interest and a wide 18¢ spread, suggesting the quoted 24¢ price may not reflect true market consensus. The 403% implied yield on the yes side is exceptionally high relative to the 49.7% on the no side, indicating either significant underpricing of Gane's championship odds or substantial tail risk being priced in by the sparse traders active here. With 258 days to expiry, the 748% realized volatility and 3.73 vol ratio suggest this market has experienced sharp historical swings, though the neutral regime and minimal 7-day price movement (24¢ to 25¢) indicate current stability masking deeper uncertainty.
Also on kalshi at 12¢(Δ +16¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
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Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xa6ff20930374ae9241f48eb548a3d7d5f6f42da2bc658154b2e9425306a5f0cb yes 100