Who will be the Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Who will be the Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market on Ciryl Gane holding the UFC Heavyweight title by year-end 2026 shows extreme pricing distortion with a 1035% risk-adjusted implied yield on the Yes side, yet zero 24-hour volume and only $4,434 open interest, suggesting severe illiquidity and potentially stale pricing.
Analysis
This market on Ciryl Gane holding the UFC Heavyweight title by year-end 2026 shows extreme pricing distortion with a 1035% risk-adjusted implied yield on the Yes side, yet zero 24-hour volume and only $4,434 open interest, suggesting severe illiquidity and potentially stale pricing. The 684% realized volatility and 2.03 vol ratio indicate this is a highly speculative contract with substantial uncertainty, while the modest 7-day price movement from 10¢ to 12¢ contradicts the extreme yield metrics, pointing to possible mispricing or very thin order books. With 259 days to expiration and a neutral regime score, the market appears undervalued for a specific fighter outcome, but the lack of trading activity makes execution risky.
Also on polymarket at 28¢(Δ -12¢)
Resolution rules
If Ciryl Gane is the UFC Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUFCHEAVYWEIGHTTITLE-26-CGAN yes 100