Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?

The market is pricing Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by end-2026 at just 10% probability, implying a 1,269% yield for "Yes" positions—an exceptionally high return reflecting the extreme long-shot nature of a ~$50,000 move from current levels in 259 days. Despite the outsized yield, the $611.5K daily volume against $57.8M open interest suggests moderate liquidity with a tight 1¢ spread, though the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 9 indicates significant tail risk around the resolution date. The stable 7-day price action at 10¢ and neutral regime score suggest the market has settled on this valuation, though the asymmetric payoff structure makes this a classic high-risk speculation rather than a balanced probability assessment.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Indicators

Regime

Trade