What is the current probability for "Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 5¢ (5% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 2728.6% and 7.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027.

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5¢

Bid/Ask 5/5¢·Spread 0¢·Vol $6,329.315·OI $76,937.351·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

0xa885bfe10688056a9d0f4e9a1523bfa18f66fda065f0400d714ba54776083713

7-day price5 snapshots · 125 regime

7¢5¢ current

Apr 125¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2728.6%

IY (No) 7.6%

Adj IY 1364%

CRI 19

Overround 4.2%

LAS 0.00

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2728.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	7.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1364%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	4.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.00	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

0¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:21:00 PM

Observability lowEvent type financial

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xa885bfe10688056a9d0f4e9a1523bfa18f66fda065f0400d714ba54776083713 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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