Will Tom Aspinall be the next fighter to be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings in 2026?
0xaca4e6b5312f1fb48ee77ea2403428c54d3cf52d2b148461bab6dd2553518dc4 · closes Dec 31, 2026 · 259 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 313.6% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 63.3% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 2 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 0.8% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 2641% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 11.52 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 5.1/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 314% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
301 indicator snapshots · 4 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve according to the next UFC fighter to be ranked 1st in the UFC Pound-For-Pound rankings, following Islam Makhachev. If Islam Makhachev remains #1 in the UFC Pound-For-Pound rankings through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no next UFC fighter to be ranked 1st in the Pound-For-Pound rankings within this timeframe, this market will resolve to “Islam/No Next #1 in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
How to trade
View on polymarket: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0xaca4e6b5312f1fb48ee77ea2403428c54d3cf52d2b148461bab6dd2553518dc4 yes 100