Iran leadership change by June 30?
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Iran leadership change by June 30?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026. The market has experienced significant downward price movement over the past week, declining from 23¢ to 19¢, suggesting reduced conviction among traders that Iran's leadership will change within the 75-day window.
Analysis
The market has experienced significant downward price movement over the past week, declining from 23¢ to 19¢, suggesting reduced conviction among traders that Iran's leadership will change within the 75-day window. The extremely high implied yield on "Yes" positions (2082.7%) reflects the substantial risk premium demanded for betting on such a low-probability, high-impact event, though the modest $7.7K daily volume and tight 1¢ spread indicate relatively thin liquidity for a market with $62.9K open interest. With a Cliff Risk Index of 4 and neutral regime score, this appears to be a speculative tail-risk contract rather than a consensus market view.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xb196a122933da9aff6cb8b0f3764d0dc5db1859f46c0481c711521eee8524291 yes 100