Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?

The 62¢ price implies a 62% probability of Powell's departure, but the asymmetric implied yields (83.1% for Yes vs. 241% for No) suggest the market is pricing in substantial tail risk despite the neutral regime—the 241% risk-adjusted yield on the No side indicates traders expect significant mean reversion if Powell stays through year-end. With $8.67M open interest against modest $493.9K daily volume and a tight 3¢ spread, liquidity is reasonable but the 216% realized volatility and 2.48 vol ratio signal this is a highly uncertain event, particularly given the 258-day timeframe and recent 4¢ price decline over seven days that warrants monitoring for potential capitulation or conviction shifts.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

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Regime

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