Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?

The 10¢ price reflects extreme skepticism about a U.S. government immigration website for aliens, yet the asymmetric payoff structure creates a staggering 1270% implied yield for "Yes" positions versus just 15.7% for "No," suggesting significant tail-risk pricing despite the low probability. With only $2.198 in 24-hour volume against $15.4M open interest, liquidity is dangerously thin relative to position size, and the 560% realized volatility combined with a cliff risk index of 9 indicates this market experiences sharp, sudden moves that could trap traders. The 7-day decline from 14¢ to 10¢ and 259 days to expiry provide time for the resolution criteria to materialize, but the low information arrival rate (0.3/h) suggests few catalysts are currently driving price discovery.

Resolution rules

On March 18, 2026, rumors emerged that the U.S. federal government had registered the domains “aliens.gov” and "alien.gov." This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government officially announces or confirms that “aliens.gov” or "alien.gov" is intended for immigration-related purposes, or if the website becomes publicly accessible and its content is clearly and predominantly related to U.S. immigration or information for or about non-citizens (“aliens”), by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For announcements to qualify, they must be official. For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity. If either website becomes publicly accessible and its content is clearly and predominantly related to extraterrestrial/UFO topics or any subject not primarily related to immigration, or if any qualifying announcement or confirmation establishes that the domains are intended for such non-immigration-related purposes, this market will resolve to "No". Informal statements, placeholder pages, inactive domains, or any content that is not clearly indicative of the domains' primary purpose will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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