Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?

The market is pricing Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 49% to be 2026's top grossing film, implying a 153% annualized yield on a Yes position with relatively tight 2¢ spreads and moderate $693k daily volume. The 20% price surge over seven days (41¢ to 49¢) suggests recent positive sentiment, possibly driven by production announcements or casting news, though the high realized volatility of 119% indicates substantial uncertainty about the film's actual box office performance. With 258 days to expiry and a neutral market regime, this appears fairly priced as a toss-up against competing 2026 releases, though the high yield reflects the inherent difficulty in predicting which film will lead the year.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

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