Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

The 38¢ price implies only a 38% probability of 0-10 daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz on April 30, 2026, suggesting the market expects substantially higher traffic (11+ transits). The extraordinarily high implied yield of 4,330% on the Yes side indicates severe mispricing or extreme tail risk, likely reflecting the geopolitical volatility of this chokepoint—realized volatility of 799% confirms the market is pricing in significant uncertainty around potential disruptions. With only $1.03M in 24-hour volume against $14.3M open interest and 14 days to expiry, liquidity is thin relative to position size, creating potential slippage risk and suggesting this market may be driven by a small number of large bets on geopolitical events rather than fundamental shipping data.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Indicators

Regime

Trade