What is the current probability for "Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 10¢ (10% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on June 30, 2026. 69 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 4750.5% and 58.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026.

████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

10¢

Bid/Ask 9/11¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $2,291.562·OI $19,309.964·Closes Jun 30, 2026·69d remaining

0xc80571a1a13b24f40b1855fb51b0339612d548e3a453731832768bbb94c45e68

7-day price84 snapshots · 9 regime

12¢10¢ current

Apr 85¢Apr 21

Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at 25¢(Δ -15¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.72IY 161.1%Close-time delta 14655h

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kamala Harris officially announces that she is running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by Kamala Harris will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether she actually filed a nomination to run, or whether she actually files a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Kamala Harris or her legal or social media representatives (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4750.5%

IY (No) 58.6%

Adj IY 1663%

CRI 9

LAS 0.30

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4750.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	58.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1663%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	9	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
LAS	0.30	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:28:42 PM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xc80571a1a13b24f40b1855fb51b0339612d548e3a453731832768bbb94c45e68 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions