Will Joe Manchin announce a run for President of the United States in 2028?
Prediction markets currently give a 26% probability that Will Joe Manchin announce a run for President of the United States in 2028?. This contract trades at 26¢ on Kalshi, closing March 1, 2028. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $559 in open interest, making the 26¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $559 in open interest, making the 26¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 159.9% implied yield on the Yes side is notably high relative to the neutral regime and suggests either significant mispricing or that traders are demanding substantial compensation for the binary risk of a Manchin announcement over the next 685 days. With nearly two years until expiration and a tight 1¢ spread, this appears to be a speculative position with minimal market depth rather than an actively traded contract.
Also on polymarket at 10¢(Δ +16¢)
Resolution rules
If Joe Manchin has announced that they will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Mar 1, 2028, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMANCHINRUN-28MAR01 yes 100