Will Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026 be at least 1.3%?

The market is pricing in an extremely bearish outlook for German Q1 2026 growth, with just a 4% probability of meeting the 1.3% threshold—a dramatic 75% collapse from 16¢ seven days ago that suggests either new economic data or a significant reassessment of eurozone conditions. The 67,307% implied yield on "Yes" reflects severe illiquidity ($13.96 daily volume against $1.4M open interest) and extreme tail-risk pricing, while the 2,582% realized volatility and high cliff risk index (24) indicate this market has experienced violent swings as the April 30 resolution date approaches. With just 13 days to expiry and the official Destatis release scheduled for that same day, any near-term economic indicators or policy announcements could trigger further sharp repricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q1 of 2026, expected to be released on April 30, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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