Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing October 31, 2026.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate and the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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sf trade 0xd89fa42d3354bbe25423cd090b62fd4d29e6c1cdd6f7b3dd906422bbed5a7f9d yes 100