Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

The 21¢ price implies only a 21% probability of 80+ ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any single day over the next 14 months, despite historical daily averages typically ranging 80-120 vessels, suggesting the market may be significantly underpricing this outcome. The extreme implied yield of 9982.5% on the Yes side combined with elevated realized volatility of 817% and a cliff risk index of 4 indicates substantial uncertainty around resolution criteria or data availability from IMF Portwatch, rather than fundamental geopolitical risk. With $11k in 24h volume and only a 4¢ spread, liquidity is moderate but the recent price movement from 17¢ to 21¢ over seven days warrants monitoring for whether this reflects new information or technical positioning ahead of the April 2026 expiry.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Indicators

Regime

Trade