Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 37% probability that Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 37¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by end-2026 is priced at 39¢, implying a 39% probability with an exceptionally high 220% annualized yield for "Yes" positions, suggesting significant underpricing relative to the ~2.6x upside needed from current levels over 259 days.
Analysis
Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by end-2026 is priced at 39¢, implying a 39% probability with an exceptionally high 220% annualized yield for "Yes" positions, suggesting significant underpricing relative to the ~2.6x upside needed from current levels over 259 days. The 132% realized volatility substantially exceeds the implied vol ratio of 0.84, indicating the market may be underestimating price swings despite the high yield compensation. With $74.3M open interest but only $2.9M daily volume, liquidity is relatively thin for the position size, creating potential slippage risk for larger traders seeking to capitalize on the asymmetric payoff.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
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sf trade 0xdaa4866bae18be58c5a79d2aeeffd035ec78f1bb49dbd88f72993997778a990f yes 100