Will Troy Green be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will Troy Green be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Polymarket, closing June 16, 2026. Troy Green's Democratic Senate nomination odds are priced at a depressed 13 cents despite 60 days to resolution, generating an extreme 4,077% risk-adjusted implied yield on the "Yes" side—a red flag suggesting either severe mispricing or near-zero conviction among traders given the zero 24-hour volume and $12.8K open interest.
Analysis
Troy Green's Democratic Senate nomination odds are priced at a depressed 13 cents despite 60 days to resolution, generating an extreme 4,077% risk-adjusted implied yield on the "Yes" side—a red flag suggesting either severe mispricing or near-zero conviction among traders given the zero 24-hour volume and $12.8K open interest. The 412% realized volatility and 7-day price stagnation at 13 cents indicate this is a low-liquidity, speculative position where the massive yield reflects illiquidity premium rather than genuine probability assessment. With a Cliff Risk Index of 7 and the market's neutral regime, this appears to be a thin, potentially abandoned contract where any meaningful information arrival could trigger sharp repricing.
Also on kalshi at 10¢(Δ +4¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Oklahoma. If no 2026 Oklahoma Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Democratic Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0xdbe2f22b6f905331858d5f20a742b9812fcf85976cbe031633f85267ac9193da yes 100