Will Troy W. Green be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Oklahoma?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Troy W. Green be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Oklahoma?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $562 in open interest, making the 12¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $562 in open interest, making the 12¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The 522% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic sign of a low-probability long-shot contract where small price movements create outsized percentage returns, though the 5¢ spread and neutral regime suggest modest conviction either way. With 566 days until expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 8, this contract has meaningful time value but faces significant uncertainty around whether Green will actually mount a competitive primary campaign in Oklahoma.
Also on polymarket at 13¢(Δ -2¢)
Resolution rules
If Troy W. Green wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Oklahoma Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSENATEOKD-26-TGRE yes 100