Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?

The 28¢ price reflects a modest 28% probability for Doomsday to top 2026's domestic box office, yet the Yes side offers an exceptional 363.9% implied yield—nearly 7x the No side's 55%—suggesting significant asymmetric risk-reward for believers in Marvel's staying power. With $40.4M in open interest and relatively tight 1¢ spreads, liquidity is solid, though the 258-day timeframe to resolution and neutral market regime (0.341 score) indicate uncertainty remains high as competing tentpoles haven't fully materialized in betting markets. The flat 7-day price action (27¢ to 28¢) suggests the market has stabilized around current consensus, though the elevated yield spread hints traders may be pricing in tail-risk scenarios where Doomsday significantly underperforms or faces unexpected competition.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

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