Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026?

The market is pricing Bitcoin reaching $190,000 by end-2026 at just 5%, implying a ~$70,000 move from current levels over 259 days, yet the Yes position offers an extraordinary 2,677.9% implied yield versus only 7.4% for No—a massive asymmetry suggesting either severe underpricing or tail-risk hedging demand. Volume of $172K against $61.7M open interest indicates relatively thin liquidity for such a high-conviction market, and the recent price decline from 6¢ to 5¢ over seven days contradicts the bullish yield structure, signaling potential disagreement between market participants on risk compensation. The moderate Cliff Risk Index of 19 and neutral regime score suggest the market isn't experiencing extreme volatility or directional conviction, making the extreme yield differential appear anomalous rather than justified by fundamental uncertainty.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Indicators

Regime

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