Will there be between 50 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

This market displays extreme mispricing with a 9¢ price implying only 9% probability for a narrow 50-60 transit band, yet the Yes position offers an astronomical 26,830% implied yield—suggesting either severe illiquidity ($9.07 daily volume on $10k open interest) or a structural arbitrage opportunity. The 1,353% realized volatility and 10/10 cliff risk index indicate this is a highly unstable micro-market where the tight 3¢ spread masks potential execution challenges, and with just 14 days to expiry, any new information about Hormuz shipping patterns could trigger sharp repricing. The neutral regime and flat 7-day price action suggest the market may be stuck at an equilibrium price that doesn't reflect true probability, making this a high-risk speculation rather than a reliable forecast.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Indicators

Regime

Trade