Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in April?

The 81¢ price reflects an 81% probability that gold touches $4,900 during April 2026, but the extreme 10,546% implied yield on "No" positions signals severe mispricing—traders betting against the move are vastly overcompensated relative to the modest 19¢ spread and $985k open interest. The sharp 20¢ rally over seven days combined with 487% realized volatility and a 1.93 vol ratio suggests recent price momentum may be driving sentiment, though with only $31k in daily volume, the market lacks liquidity to validate such extreme odds on a binary touch event with 15 days to expiry.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during April 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session as listed on Pyth will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Gold (XAUUSD) "High" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Gold Futures (GC)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.

Indicators

Regime

Trade