Real Salt Lake vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 2.5

Prediction markets currently give a 67% probability that Real Salt Lake vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 2.5. This contract trades at 67¢ on Polymarket, closing April 23, 2026. This Over 2.5 goals market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $125k open interest, suggesting the $125k may represent stale positions rather than active trading.

███████████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░
67¢
Bid/Ask 66/68¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $1,094.195·OI $9,524.197·Closes Apr 23, 2026·1d remaining
0xefb2ea6133b5c809419b17254ff770ff98c4733046b28fa80804394eaea2c37d
7-day price143 snapshots · 6 regime
67¢67¢ current
Apr 1339¢Apr 21

Analysis

5d ago

This Over 2.5 goals market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $125k open interest, suggesting the $125k may represent stale positions rather than active trading. The 62¢ price has rallied 8 cents over 7 days, but the astronomical implied yields (3443% for Yes, 8425% for No) and 1379% realized volatility indicate severe mispricing or data anomalies rather than genuine market opportunity. With only 7 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 2, this market appears distressed and should be approached cautiously given the disconnect between the modest 5¢ spread and the extreme yield metrics.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming MLS game between Real Salt Lake and Inter Miami CF, scheduled for April 22 at 9:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Real Salt Lake and Inter Miami CF combine to score 3 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 3, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on mlssoccer.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 15484.6%
IY (No) 63829.5%
Adj IY 24523%
CRI 2
RV 147%
VR 0.12
▶ Full indicator table (9)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)15484.6%
IY (No)63829.5%
Adj IY24523%
CRI2
RV147%
VR0.12
IAR0.7/h
Overround2.5%
LAS0.01

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:19:36 PM
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xefb2ea6133b5c809419b17254ff770ff98c4733046b28fa80804394eaea2c37d yes 100

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions