Will the housing market crash?
Leader sits at 47% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 36%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
36¢
<$419K
Spread
11pp
contested
24h volume
$265K
liquid
Closes
May 21, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
15 bound
Bracket families
2 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 23% of their title tokens — “What will the median home value” vs “What level will the Dubai Real Estate Index hit in 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
What will the median home value
What will the median home value in Miami be on September 30?: $1.089M - $1.125M
0xd00825…16a4
What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on September 30?: <$446K
0x4fe487…ee0d
What will the median home value in New York City be on September 30?: $636K - $663K
0x17a8de…95c7
What will the median home value in the US be on September 30?: <$419K
0xd15829…62ba
What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on September 30?: $446K - $454K
0xb0d62f…4443
What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on September 30?: $518K - $524K
0x8acdad…be68
What will the median home value in Miami be on September 30?: $1.125M - $1.161M
0x7f90ba…9d8a
What will the median home value in the US be on September 30?: $433K - $440K
0x00d4c6…da06
What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on September 30?: $470K - $478K
0x458d56…2698
What will the median home value in the US be on September 30?: $419K - $426K
0xba8274…5369
Cluster 2
What level will the Dubai Real Estate Index hit in 2026
What level will the Dubai Real Estate Index hit in 2026?: ↓ 10,000
0xbb3392…6621
What level will the Dubai Real Estate Index hit in 2026?: ↑ 16,000
0xcc1388…6e00
What level will the Dubai Real Estate Index hit in 2026?: ↑ 14,000
0x0018a5…ec7d
What level will the Dubai Real Estate Index hit in 2026?: ↓ 6,000
0x474dd2…3991
What level will the Dubai Real Estate Index hit in 2026?: ↓ 4,000
0xcd56b4…3b89
Analysis
The US housing market shows signs of continued pressure, as prediction markets price a 64% probability that the national median home value will remain below $419,000 as of late September. Regional data reflects significant weakness in the Austin Metro area, where markets indicate an 89% chance that median home values will fall below $446,000. These expectations persist despite the Case-Shiller Home Price Index recording a 1.11% year-over-year increase as of May 2026.
- ›US median home value <$419K probability
- ›Austin housing market correction outlook
- ›Case-Shiller 1.11% YoY growth
- ›Homebuilder ETF divergence
- ›Interest rate sensitivity
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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