Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be between 1.1% and 1.4%?

This market shows extreme distress signals with the Yes position trading at just 10¢ despite a massive 7690.9% implied yield, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine probability assessment. The 7-day price collapse from 29¢ to 10¢ combined with zero 24-hour volume and a 12¢ spread indicates the market has likely become abandoned, with the low price potentially reflecting a single large bet or liquidity crisis rather than informed consensus on Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP growth. The cliff risk index of 9 and realized volatility of 2826% underscore dangerous conditions for traders, making this unsuitable for position-taking without understanding the underlying cause of the price movement.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026. The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html

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