Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic primary election?

Prediction markets currently give a 73% probability that Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic primary election?. This contract trades at 73¢ on Polymarket, closing June 9, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $10.6M open interest, suggesting the 71¢ price may not reflect true market consensus and could be stale.

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73¢
Bid/Ask 69/77¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $55·OI $13,478.922·Closes Jun 9, 2026·48d remaining
0xf688606e6f30e1c55c595ccb992d095e8c9ffe2153154aeec6609eb002f201ee
7-day price295 snapshots · 3 regime
79¢75¢ current
Apr 856¢Apr 22

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $10.6M open interest, suggesting the 71¢ price may not reflect true market consensus and could be stale. The massive yield asymmetry—281.7% for Yes versus 1688.6% for No—indicates severe mispricing, with the No side offering dramatically outsized returns that typically signals either a data error or extreme market dysfunction. With 53 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 2, traders should be cautious about the reliability of this price as a predictive signal until meaningful volume returns.

Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at 69¢+4¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.88IY 29.3%Close-time delta 12303h

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of South Carolina, scheduled to take place on June 9, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 South Carolina Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the South Carolina Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 267.3%
IY (No) 2165.0%
Adj IY 1082%
CRI 3
Overround 0.1%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)267.3%
IY (No)2165.0%
Adj IY1082%
CRI3
Overround0.1%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.341
Spread
8¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 12:35:00 AM
Observability lowEvent type political
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 12:23:19 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xf688606e6f30e1c55c595ccb992d095e8c9ffe2153154aeec6609eb002f201ee yes 100

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