Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?

The 28¢ price reflects a heavily skewed risk-reward profile, with Yes holders facing an extreme 2424% implied yield against a much lower 366.7% for No—suggesting the market has priced in substantial uncertainty or potential mispricing given the narrow 39-day window to resolution. With only $306.79 in 24-hour volume against $16.1M open interest, liquidity is severely constrained relative to position size, creating potential execution risk and vulnerability to price manipulation. The flat 7-day price action and neutral regime score indicate the market has settled into a stable but potentially illiquid equilibrium, though the 3/10 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution near the May 26 election date.

Resolution rules

The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Indicators

Regime

Trade