What is the current probability for "2026 Game of the Year?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 7¢ (7% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2027. 619 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "2026 Game of the Year?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1120.7% and 3.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "2026 Game of the Year?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

2026 Game of the Year?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that 2026 Game of the Year?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This market on Pragmata winning 2026 Game of the Year shows extreme mispricing signals with a 1405% implied yield on the Yes side against just 2.4% on No, suggesting severe underpricing of the outcome at 6¢.

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7¢

Bid/Ask 5/7¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $359.48·OI $20,412.31·Closes Dec 31, 2027·619d remaining

KXGAMEAWARDS-2026-PRA

7-day price34 snapshots · 63 regime

7¢5¢ current

Apr 131¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market on Pragmata winning 2026 Game of the Year shows extreme mispricing signals with a 1405% implied yield on the Yes side against just 2.4% on No, suggesting severe underpricing of the outcome at 6¢. The realized volatility of 2400% and vol ratio of 4.14 indicate wild price swings disconnected from fundamentals, while the modest $417.87 daily volume and $19,259 open interest reveal dangerously low liquidity that could amplify slippage on larger positions. With 624 days until expiration, the market has ample time for information arrival (0.4 events per hour), yet the recent price movement from 2¢ to 4¢ combined with the elevated cliff risk index of 24 suggests this contract may be vulnerable to sudden repricing or liquidity crises.

Resolution rules

If Pragmata has won Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1120.7%

IY (No) 3.1%

Adj IY 336%

CRI 19

Overround -0.1%

LAS 0.40

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1120.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	3.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	336%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.40	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:12:26 PM

Observability lowEvent type cultural

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXGAMEAWARDS-2026-PRA yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →