2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?
Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 22¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $375 open interest, making the 359.6% implied yield on the Yes side potentially misleading—that figure reflects the wide 8¢ spread rather than genuine trading opportunity.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $375 open interest, making the 359.6% implied yield on the Yes side potentially misleading—that figure reflects the wide 8¢ spread rather than genuine trading opportunity. The 20¢ price implies a 20% probability for a film titled "Jack of Spades" to receive a Best Picture nomination at the 2027 Oscars, which appears notably high for a specific, unnamed project with nearly two years until resolution and the Cliff Risk Index of 6 suggesting significant tail risk. With 624 days to expiry, this market lacks the time compression that typically drives yield spikes, and the flat 7-day price action suggests minimal conviction among the sparse participants.
Resolution rules
If Jack of Spades has been nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-JAC yes 100