Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?
Prediction markets currently give a 19% probability that Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?. This contract trades at 19¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2028. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a $2,891 open interest, suggesting minimal trading activity and a potentially stale 16¢ price that may not reflect current sentiment on Trump's 2028 nomination bid.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a $2,891 open interest, suggesting minimal trading activity and a potentially stale 16¢ price that may not reflect current sentiment on Trump's 2028 nomination bid. The 391% implied yield on the Yes side is unusually high and likely a mispricing artifact of the low liquidity rather than genuine market expectation, while the 4¢ spread indicates difficulty in execution. With 625 days to expiry and a recent 2¢ price decline over seven days, this contract appears underutilized and potentially mispriced, making it a high-risk venue for position entry.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Donald J. Trump announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KX2028RRUN-28-DJT yes 100