Will Omar Cooper Jr. be the 3rd Wide Receiver drafted
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
29%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$40K
19 contracts
Top contract
6¢
$39K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
18 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 8% of their title tokens — “Will Donald” vs “Will Tyrese Maxey be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 3rd Team”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Donald
Will Donald J. Trump Jr. be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?: Donald J. Trump Jr.
KXPRESNOMR-28-DJTJR
Will Donald Trump Jr. and Marco Rubio be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket?: Donald Trump Jr. and Marco Rubio
KXRTICKET-28NOV07-DTJRMRUB
Cluster 2
Will Tyrese Maxey be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 3rd Team
Will Tyrese Maxey be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 3rd Team?: Tyrese Maxey
KXNBA3RDTEAM-26-TMAX
Cluster 3
Will Will Anderson Jr. win the Defensive Player of the Year
Will Will Anderson Jr. win the Defensive Player of the Year?: Will Anderson Jr.
KXNFLDPOTY-27-WAND
Cluster 4
Will Rueben Bain Jr. win the Defensive Rookie of the Year
Will Rueben Bain Jr. win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Rueben Bain Jr.
KXNFLDROTY-27-RBAI
Cluster 5
Will Xavier Becerra finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary
Cluster 6
Will Renan Santos finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Cluster 7
Will Democratics win the Senate race in North Carolina
Will Democratics win the Senate race in North Carolina?: Roy Cooper
SENATENC-26-D
Cluster 8
Will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 9
Will Tom Steyer finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary
Will Tom Steyer finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?: Tom Steyer
KXCAGOV3RD-26JUN02-3-TSTE
Cluster 10
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Donald J. Trump Jr.
KX2028RRUN-28-DJTJR
Cluster 11
Will Jalen Duren be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 3rd Team
Will Jalen Duren be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 3rd Team?: Jalen Duren
KXNBA3RDTEAM-26-JDUR
Cluster 12
Will Robert Menendez Jr. be the Democratic nominee for NJ-08
Will Robert Menendez Jr. be the Democratic nominee for NJ-08?: Robert Menendez Jr.
KXNJPRIMARY-08D26-RMEN
Cluster 13
Will Alex Cooper and Alix Earle be seen together in public before Jan 1, 2027
Will Alex Cooper and Alix Earle be seen together in public before Jan 1, 2027?: Yes
KXPERSONPUBLICCULTURE-27JAN01
Cluster 14
Will Omar Cooper Jr. win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Omar Cooper Jr. win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Omar Cooper Jr.
KXNFLOROTY-27-OCOO
Cluster 15
Will Luka Doncic be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 3rd Team
Will Luka Doncic be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 3rd Team?: Luka Doncic
KXNBA3RDTEAM-26-LDON
Cluster 16
Will Marvin Harrison Jr. lead Pro Football in Receiving Yards for the 2026-2027 regular season
Cluster 17
What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2029
What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2029?: any 3rd Amendment case
KXSCOTUSCERT3RD-29JAN-3RD
Cluster 18
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
What moved the line
- Apr 26Robert Menendez Jr.↑52pp21→73¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Tyrese Maxey↓26pp60→34¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Tyrese Maxey↓11pp34→23¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Tom Steyer↑8pp15→23¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Robert Menendez Jr.↑6pp77→83¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.