SimpleFunctions
19 contractsKalshirefreshed 9 min ago

Will Omar Cooper Jr. be the 3rd Wide Receiver drafted

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 19 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

29%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

29%

19 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$40K

19 contracts

Top contract

$39K · Kalshi

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 23% (26 days, 26 points)Aggregate: 23% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 19 contracts · 26d

Bracket families

18 clusters across 19 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 8% of their title tokens — “Will Donald” vs “Will Tyrese Maxey be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 3rd Team”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Will Donald

2 contracts$39K

Cluster 2

Will Tyrese Maxey be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 3rd Team

1 contract$298

Cluster 3

Will Will Anderson Jr. win the Defensive Player of the Year

1 contract$241

Cluster 4

Will Rueben Bain Jr. win the Defensive Rookie of the Year

1 contract$164

Cluster 5

Will Xavier Becerra finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary

1 contract$106

Cluster 6

Will Renan Santos finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election

1 contract$95

Cluster 7

Will Democratics win the Senate race in North Carolina

1 contract$46

Cluster 8

Will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$30

Cluster 9

Will Tom Steyer finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary

1 contract$18

Cluster 10

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028

1 contract$7

Cluster 11

Will Jalen Duren be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 3rd Team

1 contract$3

Cluster 12

Will Robert Menendez Jr. be the Democratic nominee for NJ-08

1 contract$0

Cluster 13

Will Alex Cooper and Alix Earle be seen together in public before Jan 1, 2027

1 contract$0

Cluster 14

Will Omar Cooper Jr. win the Offensive Rookie of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 15

Will Luka Doncic be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 3rd Team

1 contract$0

Cluster 16

Will Marvin Harrison Jr. lead Pro Football in Receiving Yards for the 2026-2027 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 17

What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2029

1 contract$0

Cluster 18

Will Ronaldo Caiado finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election

1 contract$0

What moved the line

  • Apr 26Robert Menendez Jr.52pp2173¢ · Kalshi
  • May 2Tyrese Maxey26pp6034¢ · Kalshi
  • May 3Tyrese Maxey11pp3423¢ · Kalshi
  • Apr 30Tom Steyer8pp1523¢ · Kalshi
  • May 2Robert Menendez Jr.6pp7783¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.