Will Trump run in 2028?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 17% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
17%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$35
5 contracts
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
792 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before” vs “Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before
Cluster 2
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028
Cluster 3
Will a Trump family member the 2028 Republican presidential nominee
Will a Trump family member the 2028 Republican presidential nominee?: Before 2028
KXTRUMPPRES-28
Analysis
Donald Trump is currently viewed as having low odds of announcing a 2028 presidential run, with markets pricing that event at 26% by November 2028. There is a 44% market-implied probability that Trump will endorse J.D. Vance for the 2028 election before March 1, 2028. Conversely, market participants assign only an 11% probability to Trump endorsing himself.
- ›26% chance of Trump 2028 run announcement
- ›44% chance of J.D. Vance endorsement
- ›Low 11% odds for Trump self-nomination
- ›Early political maneuvering
What moved the line
- Sep 6Before 2028↑3pp16→19¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 7Before 2028↓3pp19→16¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in trump
- Who will Trump talk to in Aprillast 3% · 6d
- How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. in Aug 2026last 38% · 17d
- Will Trump nominate Stephen Hahn as FDA commissionerlast 49% · 18d
- Who will be Trump's next Attorney Generallast 97% · 29d
- Will President Trump issue any executive action on declassifying or releasing records related to unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) or UFOs before Jul 1, 2026last 3% · 36d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in trump.
In trump
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Trump Administration Turmoil: Hegseth Departure Odds at 31%
Pete Hegseth's probability of leaving the Defense Secretary role before 2027 is 31¢ with 31,585 volume. Combined with 15¢ impeachment odds, markets are pricing a non-trivial chance of major upheaval.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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