Will Trump run in 2028?
Kalshi
12 contracts
Polymarket
8 contracts
Analysis
Prediction markets assign a low probability to Donald Trump announcing a run for the 2028 presidency, with only a 25% chance of an announcement before November 2028 and a 15% chance before January 2028. There is also currently a 24% market-implied probability that he will resign before his current term concludes. Investors are simultaneously monitoring political stability, with a 40% chance of executive action regarding a national emergency around the 2026 midterms.
- ›25% chance of 2028 run announcement
- ›24% probability of resignation
- ›40% risk of 2026 midterm emergency declaration
- ›Political instability monitoring
Contracts
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: Mark Kelly
Presidential Election Winner 2028: Marco Rubio
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: Gavin Newsom
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Tucker Carlson
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: Josh Shapiro
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Ron DeSantis
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: J.D. Vance
Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?: Pete Buttigieg
Presidential Election Winner 2028: Donald Trump
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Donald J. Trump
Will a Trump family member the 2028 Republican presidential nominee?: Before 2028
Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Nov 7, 2028?: Before Election Day
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Donald J. Trump Jr.
Will JD Vance and Donald Trump Jr. be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket?: JD Vance and Donald Trump Jr.
Will Marco Rubio and Donald Trump Jr. be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket?: Marco Rubio and Donald Trump Jr.
Will Donald Trump Jr. and Marco Rubio be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket?: Donald Trump Jr. and Marco Rubio
Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2028?: Before 2028
Will Donald Trump and Marco Rubio be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket?: Donald Trump and Marco Rubio
Will Marco Rubio and Donald Trump be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket?: Marco Rubio and Donald Trump
Will JD Vance and Donald Trump be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket?: JD Vance and Donald Trump