Will Trump run in 2028?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$213
6 contracts
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
838 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 9% of their title tokens — “Will Donald Trump” vs “Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Donald Trump
Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Nov 7, 2028?: Before Election Day
KXTRUMPRUN-28NOV07
Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2028?: Before 2028
KXTRUMPRUN-28JAN01
Will Donald Trump Jr. and Marco Rubio be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket?: Donald Trump Jr. and Marco Rubio
KXRTICKET-28NOV07-DTJRMRUB
Cluster 2
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028
Cluster 3
Will a Trump family member the 2028 Republican presidential nominee
Will a Trump family member the 2028 Republican presidential nominee?: Before 2028
KXTRUMPPRES-28
Analysis
Market evidence is not negligible: polymarket "Presidential Election Winner 2028: Eric Trump" 0¢; polymarket "Presidential Election Winner 2028: Donald Trump Jr." 1¢; polymarket "Presidential Election Winner 2028: Donald Trump" 1¢. Resolution windows can differ across venues, so treat the odds as contract-specific rather than one combined probability.
- ›20% probability of a 2028 run
- ›7% chance of a Trump family nomination
- ›fringe betting on future ticket pairings
- ›low political market engagement
Recently closed in trump
- Will the number of distinct days with a Getty Images editorial photo of Trump be exactly 7 between Jun 15, 2026 and Jun 21, 2026last 95% · 4d
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act becomes law without Donald Trump’s signature before Jul 14, 2026last 97% · 8d
- Will Donald Trump make between 80 and 99 Truth Social posts the week of Apr 19, 2026last 48% · 18d
- Will Glenn Youngkin join the Trump administrationlast 3% · 21d
- Will Trump say "Fort Trump" before Jul 1, 2026last 3% · 22d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In trump
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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