Will Trump run in 2028?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 8 contracts. Kalshi at 12%, Polymarket at 3% — a 9pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
7 contracts
Polymarket
3%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
9pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
8 contracts
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
884 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 12¢ · Polymarket 3¢ · 9pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (3¢, 1 contract) and sell on Kalshi (12¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
5 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 9% of their title tokens — “Will Donald Trump” vs “Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Donald Trump
Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Nov 7, 2028?: Before Election Day
KXTRUMPRUN-28NOV07
Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2028?: Before 2028
KXTRUMPRUN-28JAN01
Will Donald Trump Jr. and Marco Rubio be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket?: Donald Trump Jr. and Marco Rubio
KXRTICKET-28NOV07-DTJRMRUB
Cluster 2
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028
Cluster 3
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Donald Trump Jr
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Donald Trump Jr.
0x4a9d58…6557
Cluster 4
Will a Trump family member the 2028 Republican presidential nominee
Will a Trump family member the 2028 Republican presidential nominee?: Before 2028
KXTRUMPPRES-28
Cluster 5
Will JD Vance and Donald Trump be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket
Analysis
There is currently no direct prediction market contract for a Donald Trump 2028 presidential candidacy. Current market focus for the 2028 election cycle is centered on Democratic primary contenders, where Gavin Newsom is currently seen as the most likely candidate to declare first, with a 29% market-implied probability.
- ›Gavin Newsom 29% declaration probability
- ›Kamala Harris 21% declaration probability
- ›Focus on 2028 primary declaration timelines
- ›Absence of direct Trump 2028 contract
What moved the line
- Jun 7Donald J. Trump↓3pp13→10¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in trump
- Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31last 39% · 1d
- How long will Donald Trump speak for at White House Correspondents' Dinnerlast 92% · 2d
- Which topic will Donald Trump mention most during Roundtable Chippewa Falls, Wisconsinlast 45% · 2d
- Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General by June 30last 93% · 3d
- Who will Trump speak to in Maylast 20% · 3d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in trump.
In trump
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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