Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?
Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?. This contract trades at 22¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2028. This Greg Abbott nomination market shows extreme illiquidity with only $5 in 24-hour volume against $700 open interest, creating a wide 3¢ spread and inflated 249% Yes yield that likely reflects thin trading rather than genuine probability assessment.
Analysis
This Greg Abbott nomination market shows extreme illiquidity with only $5 in 24-hour volume against $700 open interest, creating a wide 3¢ spread and inflated 249% Yes yield that likely reflects thin trading rather than genuine probability assessment. The 22¢ price implies a modest 22% chance Abbott runs, though the modest 1¢ price appreciation over seven days suggests limited conviction among traders. With 625 days to expiration and a moderate cliff risk index of 4, this market has time for Abbott's political positioning to clarify, but the minimal volume makes it difficult to establish reliable pricing.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Greg Abbott announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KX2028RRUN-28-GABB yes 100