Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?
Prediction markets currently give a 38% probability that Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?. This contract trades at 38¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2028. This market shows extreme volatility (289% realized vol) and a notably inverted yield structure, with Yes offering 104% annualized return versus just 33% for No—an unusual risk premium suggesting either significant uncertainty about Haley's intentions or potential mispricing.
Analysis
This market shows extreme volatility (289% realized vol) and a notably inverted yield structure, with Yes offering 104% annualized return versus just 33% for No—an unusual risk premium suggesting either significant uncertainty about Haley's intentions or potential mispricing. The price has declined 14 percentage points over seven days (42¢ to 36¢) on minimal liquidity ($22 daily volume), indicating the recent move may reflect thin-market dynamics rather than fundamental conviction. With 625 days to expiration and a 2.0 cliff risk index, the market remains highly sensitive to news flow, though the neutral regime score suggests no immediate directional bias.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Nikki Haley announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KX2028RRUN-28-NHAL yes 100