Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?

This Rand Paul 2028 Republican nomination market shows extreme volatility (249% realized vol) and a stark asymmetry in risk-adjusted yields (100% on Yes vs. 34.3% on No), suggesting significant uncertainty about his candidacy announcement despite the modest 42¢ price. The $0 24-hour volume combined with $5,674 open interest and a 5¢ spread indicates thin liquidity, making the 99.5% annualized yield on the Yes side potentially misleading—this high yield reflects the long 625-day time horizon and low probability rather than market inefficiency. The recent 7-day price movement from 34¢ to 37¢ and elevated info arrival rate (0.9/h) suggest active speculation, but the neutral regime and low volume warrant caution on directional conviction.

Resolution rules

If Rand Paul announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

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