Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?
Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2028. This Kalshi market on Thomas Massie's 2028 Republican primary candidacy shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,431 open interest, making the 25¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This Kalshi market on Thomas Massie's 2028 Republican primary candidacy shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,431 open interest, making the 25¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 185% implied yield on the Yes side is notably high relative to the 625-day timeframe, suggesting either significant underpricing or substantial tail risk that the market hasn't fully priced in. The flat price action (down just 1¢ over seven days) combined with the wide 5¢ spread indicates minimal trading activity and low conviction among participants.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Thomas Massie announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KX2028RRUN-28-TMAS yes 100