Will average **gas prices** be above or below $6.00 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 84% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above or below $6.00 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 84¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The market is pricing in only a 37% probability of California gas prices exceeding $6.00 by end-2026, despite the No side showing an extraordinarily high 689% implied yield—a massive asymmetry suggesting either deep skepticism about price spikes or potential mispricing.
Analysis
The market is pricing in only a 37% probability of California gas prices exceeding $6.00 by end-2026, despite the No side showing an extraordinarily high 689% implied yield—a massive asymmetry suggesting either deep skepticism about price spikes or potential mispricing. With zero 24-hour volume and just $1,208 open interest against a 10¢ spread, liquidity is severely constrained, making the 37¢ price potentially unreliable; notably, the contract has rallied sharply from 73¢ to 83¢ over seven days, indicating recent bullish sentiment that contradicts the current low probability. The neutral regime score and moderate cliff risk suggest no imminent catalysts, but traders should be cautious given the illiquidity and dramatic recent price movement.
Resolution rules
If average regular gas prices for California are strictly greater than $6.00 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Edges (1)
Trade
sf trade KXAAAGASMAXCA-26DEC31-6.00 yes 100