Will average gas prices be above or below $4.90 by Dec 31, 2026
Leader sits at 35% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 32%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $4.90
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
32¢
Above $4.70
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$54
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
189 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
will average gas prices be above or below $
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.70 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $4.70
KXAAAGASMAXFL-26DEC31-4.70
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.90 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $4.90
KXAAAGASMAXFL-26DEC31-4.90
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.70 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.70
KXAAAGASMAXFL-26DEC31-5.70
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.30 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.30
KXAAAGASMAXFL-26DEC31-5.30
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.10 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.10
KXAAAGASMAXFL-26DEC31-5.10
Analysis
Market participants are assigning a 93% probability that average U.S. gasoline prices will exceed $4.40 per gallon by year-end 2026, based on 20 contracts trading on Kalshi. This reflects expectations that fuel costs will remain elevated through December rather than falling sharply. The forecast depends primarily on crude oil supply dynamics, OPEC production decisions, and global demand trends, particularly from China and other major economies. Near-term catalysts include upcoming energy inventory reports, geopolitical developments affecting Middle Eastern production, and macroeconomic data signaling recession risk or demand destruction. Notably, the market assigns only a 6% probability to prices falling below $2.00, suggesting traders view extreme downside scenarios as unlikely.
- ›Current WTI crude oil price and trend—crude typically drives 50-70% of retail gasoline variation
- ›OPEC+ production policy decisions, particularly Saudi Arabia's output levels and stated production targets through Q4 2026
- ›U.S. refinery capacity utilization rates and seasonal maintenance schedules that affect gasoline supply
- ›Macroeconomic growth expectations and vehicle fuel demand projections relative to inventory levels
- ›Geopolitical risk premiums from Middle Eastern tensions, sanctions, or supply disruptions that could compress margins
What moved the line
- Jun 18Above $4.90↓31pp35→4¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Above $5.10↓17pp20→3¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Above $5.10↑15pp3→18¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Above $4.90↓10pp25→15¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Above $4.70↓9pp23→14¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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