Will average gas prices be above or below $4.20 by Dec 31, 2026
Leader sits at 51% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 30%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $4.80
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
30¢
Above $5.00
Spread
21pp
contested
24h volume
$200
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
98 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
will average gas prices be above or below $
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.00
KXAAAGASMAXNY-26DEC31-5.00
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.20 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.20
KXAAAGASMAXNY-26DEC31-5.20
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.40 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.40
KXAAAGASMAXNY-26DEC31-5.40
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $4.80
KXAAAGASMAXNY-26DEC31-4.80
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $6.20 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $6.20
KXAAAGASMAXNY-26DEC31-6.20
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $6.00 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $6.00
KXAAAGASMAXNY-26DEC31-6.00
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.80 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.80
KXAAAGASMAXNY-26DEC31-5.80
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.60 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.60
KXAAAGASMAXNY-26DEC31-5.60
Analysis
This reflects a 30% probability that average U.S. gasoline prices will exceed $4.80 per gallon by the end of 2026. Currently, prices are trading well below this threshold, so the outcome depends primarily on future crude oil supply disruptions, refinery capacity changes, and global demand shifts. The contract chain shows declining probabilities for progressively higher price levels, suggesting markets view extreme price spikes as unlikely but not impossible. Key drivers include OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical stability in major oil-producing regions, and U.S. inventory levels. Winter demand patterns (typically peaking in the final quarter) and any major supply disruptions between now and December 31 would be the primary catalysts that could either elevate or reduce the likelihood of exceeding $4.80.
- ›Current average U.S. gas prices are approximately $2.80-$3.00 per gallon; reaching $4.80 would require a 60-70% price increase in roughly five months
- ›OPEC+ production policy decisions scheduled through 2026 will directly influence crude supply and downstream retail pricing
- ›Winter heating demand typically raises fuel costs in Q4, but the magnitude of any seasonal increase would need to be substantial to hit $4.80
- ›Geopolitical events affecting major oil-producing regions (Middle East, Russia, Venezuela) represent the highest-probability catalyst for significant price acceleration
- ›U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels and refinery utilization rates will constrain upside price potential absent a major supply shock
What moved the line
- Sep 18Above $4.80↓34pp55→21¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Above $4.80↑19pp21→40¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 23Above $4.80↑10pp40→50¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Above $5.40↑9pp8→17¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Above $5.40↓9pp17→8¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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